Constructing a Long-Volatility ETF Portfolio

Tags: Volatility
4 Feb 9:50am
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As I've discussed before, the nature of the VIX and its technical dangers provide a large disincentive to ETF issuers.  In the absence of a VIX ETF, however, there remain other options to effectively purchase volatility.  Transaction costs remain a large issue in any such endeavor, and so I have constructed what is most likely the simplest option. 

The most VIX-correlated ETFs on the market are, nearly without expection, ProShares Ultra or UltraShort ETFs.  It is likely that ProShares or their managing counterparty is using volatility contracts of some type in the management of these products.  As a result, one of the most efficient proxies to volatility is to purchase equal amounts of SDS, the UltraShort S&P500 and SSO, the Ultra S&P 500.  This portfolio yields the following returns against the VIX:

VIX ETF

The daily log-return correlation squared here is 74%, and the weekly log-return correlation squared is 73%.  As I've noted in previous analysis, however, cumulative return series diverge temporarily without failure.  The daily cumulative log-return correlation squared is 64%, dropping to 58% when moving to weekly cumulative log-returns.

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About

mjbommar

Michael J Bommarito II is a third-year undergraduate at the University of Michigan majoring in math with a focus on finance. He intends to complete his bachelors and obtain a masters in a financial engineering program, thereafter seeking employment in the applied financial community. Until free from school, he enjoys being a part of the investment community by freely publishing quantitatively-oriented analysis and commentary on his site, ETF Central.